SA’s healthcare funding model could squeeze household affordability, destabilise parts of the private sector and push more patients into a public system already under strain, wrote Luyanda Njilo, senior research analyst at Nedbank Corporate & Investment Banking in Business Day (6 Feb 2026).
The proposed withdrawal of medical scheme tax credits, starting with high-income earners in 2026 and extending to all taxpayers by 2027, is framed as a revenue-raising measure to support the NHI.
“According to experts removing medical scheme tax credits could reduce membership by about 6% and cut private healthcare spending by roughly R20bn. That would be a sharper shock than the pandemic years, when membership is estimated to have fallen by around 1% and private spending contracted by about 4%.
“For private hospitals, the potential revenue hit is estimated at R5bn, with the impact concentrated among mid-tier consumers.
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https://www.businessday.co.za/opinion/2026-02-06-luyanda-njilo-sa-faces-healthcare-shock-with-cancellation-of-medical-tax-credits/
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